👉 Talk is rescheduled from 15:00. Speaker feels ill and would like to try at a later timeslot. 👈
This talk will be in russian language with a live translation to english.
Mykyta Soloviov: Lawyer, macroeconomist, specialist in fiscal policies. Key author and editor of one of the comprehensive programmes for economical reforms in Ukraine. Civil activist, volunteer. Member of the "Democratychna Sokyra" ("The Democratic Axe", political party).
Why does the inertial scenario of Ukraine's post-war development guarantee stagnation? Impossibility to go back to the pre-war economy. Necessary conditions for the revival of the Ukrainian economy. Volumes and direction of necessary assistance. Two main options for the "Marshall Plan". Pros, cons and estimated consequences of each.
Detailed Description: The economic model that existed before the full-scale war in Ukraine cannot be restored. It makes no sense - neither economically, nor politically and socially. (Explanation why: overview of the major sectors.) After the war, either complete stagnation and final extinction of the Ukrainian economy or deep structural changes and qualitative growth are possible. Quantitative growth without qualitative growth has a very low ceiling and will not provide much benefit to either Ukraine itself or potential donors. (Explanation why, and what types of benefits are meant.) Why qualitative growth is possible, what are its prerequisites.
A list of necessary internal and external efforts and steps for Ukraine's economic revival. Internal: concluding a social contract, change of attitude to property and contract, liberalization of rules for economic activity, application of rules and regulations understandable for external players. External: assistance in economical and political integration, financial assistance, technological assistance (including management technologies).
Two basic options for assistance: either state guarantees to investors and private direct investment in fixed capital, or state injections into the Ukrainian budget and spending of money inside Ukraine by the government. Uselessness of the second option in the long term. Conditions and parameters for the first one to ensure a long-term self-sustaining result. Parsing of the options.
Brief conclusions.
Everybody is wellcome to ask questions and discuss with us.