SIGINT10 - final10

Konferenz für Netzbewohner, Hacker und Aktivisten

Nick Farr
Tag Day 3 - 2010-05-24
Raum KOMED Saal (MP7)
Beginn 12:00
Dauer 00:45
ID 3853
Veranstaltungstyp Vortrag
Track Netzbewohner
Sprache der Veranstaltung englisch

Future 3.0

One Theory on Patterns in Culture, Technology and Commerce

Is there a relationship between the evolution of Human Computer Interaction, the future of money and the way we eat? Yes, and it comes in threes! This talk explores the striking similarities in the Semantic Web (Web 3.0), Post-Piracy Pop Culture Economics, Natural User Interface Design, Local Food Movements, Rapid Prototyping, Polyamory and other Third Wave points of "Future Shock" to help better frame and understand how the future evolves.

The core theory behind this talk is that future developments in post-modern Technological, Cultural and Commercial development are best framed in three distinct steps. The characteristics of 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 are strikingly similar. The theory argues that phase 1.0 is crude, natural, direct, decentralized and involved few prospects for growth. 2.0 is refined, uses analogies and centralized systems and involves maturity and massive growth. By looking at nine points of development, I argue that "3.0" matures by going back to the natural, direct and decentralized characteristics of 1.0 while preserving the modern developments of 2.0 accompanied by more entropic, slower, and more organic growth curve. The analysis follows along the following lines:

I. Technology A. Web: HTML -> AJAX -> Truly Semantic, Interactive Web (RDF/XML/OWL + Apps) B. Interfaces: Command Line -> GUI -> Natural User Interfaces (Gestures, Touch Screen, Voice) C. Communications: Word of Mouth/Point to Point Mail -> Centralized Telco & Mail -> Internet Everywhere, Mesh GSM, Distributed Channels

II. Culture A. Entertainment: Direct Performances/Interactive Entertainment -> Centrally Distributed/Controlled Printed Media, Motion Pictures, Music -> Directly Created Massively Distributed On-Demand Media B. Food: What was Locally Available -> Global Food Importation/Exportation -> Locally Grown/Sourced Everything C. Sex: Many Partners (Pre-Civilization) -> One Partner/Marriage (Civilization) -> Polyamory (Post-Modern)

III. Commerce A. Manufacturing: Local raw materials, local finished goods -> Raw Materials from everywhere to Centralized Point of Lowest Cost Production -> Raw materials from anywhere, create everywhere B. Money: Local exchange of physical items of value -> Money, Trust in Centralized Stores of Value -> Distributed stores of value to facilitate direct trade of items of value C. Services: Locally provided services -> Outsourced services -> Service Automation, Selective "Local Sourcing", Emphasis on Competency Creation

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